A method to Trump’s madness

Although I don’t believe President Trump is particularly intelligent, I find it implausible that he could be quite so obtuse to believe that now is the time to start reopening businesses.  So why would he pressure the states to do so while ignoring the scientific and medical experts who say it’s premature and likely to trigger a new wave of Covid-19 infections.

The answer is politics.  He has nothing to lose.

In January and February the president blundered when faced with a pandemic he was unfit to handle.  The highly politicized, media-frenetic environment of his own making only exacerbated his infirmity.    

Instead of inspiring the country to work together to fight this formidable enemy, he resorted to divisiveness, denial of science, and passing the buck to the states creating a dysfunctional patchwork of policy.  You don’t win a war by allowing 50 generals to formulate and execute their own war strategies.

Some people have suggested that Trump doesn’t have the jurisdictional authority to control how individual states respond to the virus, but there’s no denying he has the leverage to get states to do anything he wants by controlling various federal grants, aid programs, and the like that they rely on.

So with all this in mind, Trump has dug himself so deep into a hole it’s unlikely at this point he could win in November.  So what would any respectable megalomaniac do?

The answer:  Commit what appears to be political suicide by putting significant pressure on states to reopen businesses.

Trump would likely get reelected if his nonsensical advice has a fairytale ending with no significant rise in infections.  But, in the far more likely event it unleashes a more virulent wave of infections; he’s still afforded two possibilities to extend his presidency. 

First, he could potentially boost his approval ratings by blaming the states for any new outbreak and as a consequence be afforded a second chance to act like a responsible, unifying leader.  Some voters, particularly the feeble-minded, gullible and those with short memories, might actually buy into this giving him a long-shot chance of reelection.

The second is to use the new outbreak as justification for postponing the election.  This would give him time to further his political agenda, particularly in judicial appointments and rolling back environmental legislation.  I realize this may sound absurd to many, but even Trump’s son-in-law and advisor said recently that it is not being ruled out.

So there may be a method to his madness, a diabolical one at that. 

And if you don’t believe the coronavirus is likely to get worse, consider how people typically behave.  If one state or region opens their businesses and an adjoining one remains shut down, where do you think the residents of the more restricted and infected area -= are going to flock for rest and relaxation? 

Furthermore, states don’t have the wherewithal to enforce policies meant to protect the public as businesses reopen.  Some individuals and businesses left to their own devices will invariably bend the rules.  And as we learned from the notorious Westport, Connecticut party that made national news in March, it only takes a single breach to cause a ripple affect of contagion.

Of course, constitutionally President Trump cannot unilaterally postpone the election, but he is a master of causing people to underestimate him and then surprising them.  We cannot afford to let this happen.  At the very least, measures should now be underway to increase and promote the viability of secure, write-in ballots, and to block any other conceivable route the Trump administration may take.

My fear, however, is that Republicans usually outsmart and outmaneuver Democrats when it comes to dirty dealing. 

The preservation of human life has to be nonnegotiable

With spring in full bloom it’s not surprising that people are most anxious to end the coronavirus lockdowns and return to normalcy.  The movement of many states and the federal government to reopen businesses will certainly make a great number of people happy, but it defies what science and the history of epidemics and pandemics tell us. 

What kind of society have we become if we ignore the institutions we have created to guide us during such times?  How can we discount organizations like the Centers for Disease Control, the National Institutes of Health, and the World Health Organization, as well as Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, a prominent infectious disease expert and White House advisor?

President Trump and some state governors will certainly win the political favor of many rich and powerful individuals and corporate executives, most of whom are white.  But, the people of color who have been most ravaged by the coronavirus and have little political influence will pay the greatest price for this foolhardy relaxing of restrictions. 

Up to this point, the virus has disproportionately attacked along socioeconomic lines.  Those who have to use public transportation, those with low paying jobs in which they cannot work from home, and those with underlying health problems and poor healthcare are especially susceptible right now. 

“COVID-19 offers us a moment in time to pay attention to these inequities,” explains Grace A. Noppert, Postdoctoral Scholar in Epidemiology.  “Pockets of COVID-19 transmission in any community keep the risk of an enduring epidemic alive for every community (emphasis added).”

Although the country has shown recent signs of promise, its COVID-19 death rate is still alarmingly high and it’s testing grossly inadequate.  Governmental leaders cannot make sound policy decisions without comprehensive data on the number of infections.  And it is unconscionable to do so while ignoring the pervasive advice of the scientific and medical communities.

The recent emergence of a potentially lethal, pediatric disease linked to COVID-19 is further cause for caution. 

To prematurely open businesses now is to encourage the movement of people from community to community and state to state which will encourage the spread of the virus and ultimately prolong the social restrictions and economic downturn.  Certainly it will encourage people to travel from hotspots like New York City to nearby areas where the lockdown has been relaxed.  Even the suggestion of reopening soon is irresponsible because it gives the impression we are nearly through this and can let our guard down.

Furthermore, government agencies do not have the resources to insure compliance with the various laws businesses will have to follow when reopening.  Invariably some businesses left to their own devices will bend the rules.  And as we learned from the notorious Westport, Connecticut party that became national news for spreading the virus, a single incident can trigger a ripple effect of contagion.     

In the months since the coronavirus first came to our attention in late December 2019, we have not seen any comprehensive, timely, clear, and consistent top-down leadership at either a federal or state level.  The response to the pandemic has clearly demonstrated how dysfunctional government in general has become and how few politicians in a reactionary, media frenetic world are equipped with the foresight and courage to make tough, but necessary decisions to bring us all through these difficult times.

A patchwork of policies by individual communities, states, and the federal government only invites disaster.  We are all in the same lifeboat and we will only weather the storm with minimal pain and suffering if we all row in unison and no one rocks the boat.  This is not the time for politics.  This is not the time for scapegoats.  This is not the time for bravado.  And this is not the time for greed.  It is a time for courage, sound decision making, and accountability. 

In the absence of such leadership we need to let science and history guide us, and that means voicing your dissatisfaction with this reckless policy direction.  And above all, we need to sanctify the preservation of all human life.